By- Radio ML
Experts Bassam Al-Neifar and Moez Hedidan agreed that the slight decline in the value of the Tunisian dinar against the dollar is temporary and that it will decrease in the coming days. The exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar fell to 3.2 dinars, according to the daily exchange rates published on the website of the Central Bank of Tunisia.
After the Tunisian dinar had been stable against the US dollar in recent years, especially since 2019, remaining at around 3.1 dinars per dollar, it recorded a decline on the evening of Monday, January 6, 2024, trading at 3.2098 dinars in the banking transactions market.
It is noted that the assumptions for preparing Tunisia's 2025 budget were based on an oil price of $77.4 per barrel and the stability of the Tunisian dinar against major currencies (dollar and euro).
Financial analyst Bassam Al-Neifar acknowledged the increase in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Tunisian dinar, explaining that this increase, estimated at 0.35%, pushed the dollar above 3.2 dinars. At the same time, there was a decrease of 0.36% in the exchange rate of the euro against the dinar.
Al-Neifar highlighted that, according to market data, there is a demand for the dollar against the euro. He noted that calculating the euro/dollar rate based on the exchange rate of the dinar against the euro and the dinar against the dollar shows that it is almost the same as the euro/dollar exchange rate in the global market. He denied the deterioration of the Tunisian dinar, stating that the local currency is moving in the same price trends and directions as the global markets.
Regarding the impact of this increase in the dollar exchange rate against the Tunisian dinar, Al-Neifar said that all international central banks and economic studies expect the dollar to remain strong in 2025 and to rise further against the euro. He also confirmed that the "green currency" will strengthen in 2025 against the Tunisian dinar, while the euro will relatively decline against the local currency.
The financial analyst added, "When the euro declines against the dinar, it reflects on the decline in the value of Tunisian exports, which are mainly directed to the euro zone." He added, "Most of Tunisia's imports are made in dollars, so the value of imports will rise."
He continued his analysis by saying, "We know well that the structure of Tunisian debt is mostly in euros, so it is possible to achieve a relative gain in the debt portfolio by ending 2024 with a debt structure of about 54% in euros, 26.5% in dollars, 5.5% in Japanese yen, and Special Drawing Rights in dollars."
He confirmed that Tunisia could achieve a relative gain in the debt portfolio, adding that when repaying debts, such as the repayment of one billion dollars on January 30, it is possible to pay larger amounts than previously scheduled.
Al-Neifar minimized the importance of this slight increase in the dollar exchange rate against the Tunisian dinar, considering it merely a reflection of what is happening in the global exchange markets.
Financial markets expert Moez Hedidan, on his part, said that the recent rise of the dollar affected almost all other currencies, and it is not a decline of the dinar against the dollar. Hedidan confirmed that this rise in the US currency resulted from statements by the newly elected US President, Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025, regarding the new customs policy.
Hedidan noted that the new US administration considers that the customs policy will be less stringent than Trump's statements and that imposing customs duties will include some sectors considered important for US national and economic security, causing the dollar to rise until January 2, 2025, against all other currencies.
Hedidan explained that Trump insisted on implementing the announced stringent customs policy, leading to a decline in the dollar. He predicted that the exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar would decline in the coming days to below 3.2 dinars.